Early Warning for Catastrophic Infrastructure Collapse: Critical Slowing Down  Theory for Reliability Phase Transitions

Satya Sampreeth Boppudi, Saketh Gowerneni, Pradeep Kandepaneni, Praneeth Ganta, Murali M. Chittabathini

Early Warning for Catastrophic Infrastructure Collapse: Critical Slowing Down Theory for Reliability Phase Transitions

Authors

Satya Sampreeth Boppudi, Saketh Gowerneni, Pradeep Kandepaneni, Praneeth Ganta, Murali M. Chittabathini

Keywords:

site reliability engineering, critical slowing down, tipping points, bifurcation, early warning signals, phase transition, observability, autocorrelation, order parameter, cascade failur

Abstract

Production infrastructure rarely fails all atonce; it tips. Post-mortems repeatedly show that the signswere present hours before collapse, recovery from smallperturbations slowing, latency variance widening, crossservice correlations tightening, yet reliability

References

M. Scheffer et al., “Early-warning signals for critical transitions,” Nature, vol. 461, no. 7260, pp. 53–59, 2009.

V. Dakos et al., “Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change,” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, vol. 105, no. 38, pp. 14308–14312, 2008

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Published

2026-06-24

How to Cite

Satya Sampreeth Boppudi, Saketh Gowerneni, Pradeep Kandepaneni, Praneeth Ganta, Murali M. Chittabathini. (2026). Early Warning for Catastrophic Infrastructure Collapse: Critical Slowing Down Theory for Reliability Phase Transitions. Journal of Computational Analysis and Applications (JoCAAA), 35(6), 237–242. Retrieved from https://www.eudoxuspress.com/index.php/pub/article/view/5637