Sequential Progressive Delivery: Optimal Stopping Theory for Canary Promotion and Rollback
Keywords:
progressive delivery, canary analysis, optimal stopping, sequential probability ratio test, sequential analysis, release engineering, rollback, ci/cd, hypothesis testing, blast radiusAbstract
Progressive delivery promises safety: release toa small fraction of traffic, watch the metrics, expand if healthy, roll back if not. In practice the watching is crude. Teams pick a fixed observation window, bake for thirtyminutes and then decide, and a static threshold,
References
A. Wald, Sequential Analysis. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1947.
A. Wald and J. Wolfowitz, “Optimum character of the sequential probability ratio test,” Annals of Mathematical Statistics, vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 326–339, 1948.


